Impact of vaccines on mortality (CW3.1)

Updated: Apr 12

Public Health England has been producing a series of monthly publications that estimate the number of deaths that have been prevented by vaccination in England since the start of the vaccination programme. The most recent report estimates that the direct effects of the vaccine prevented 10,400 deaths in those aged 60 or older by the end of March 2021 (more). This is likely to be an underestimate of the total impact because no allowance is made for the impact on transmission, and it is assumed that the reduction in deaths would only be seen 31 days after vaccination.

Figure 1.2 provides a comparison of the rate of daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths for different G8 countries since the start of the year (more). The chart reflects the earlier emergence of the B.1.1.7 in the UK, whilst it has only become the dominant variant in the USA and Western Europe during March.

Figure 1.2 – Trends in the rate of COVID-19 deaths across G8 countries

Source: OurWorldInData

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